Unable Investment
Club
November, 2025 Meeting Minutes
November 29, 2025
The monthly meeting of
Unable Investment Club was held at Dust Bowl Brewing in Elk Grove on Friday, November
7, 2025. The meeting commenced at 2:58
pm with KS presiding for FN. JL, PR, CX, DK and HT were also in attendance.
Unable Investment Club has 1 opening.
The Valuation and Member
Status reports were reviewed and the checks were collected.
Late: None.
Old Business:
None.
New Business:
Stock News:
AMT No news.
AAPL Helping fuel its 13% year-over-year increase in earnings
per share, Apple's services revenue climbed 15% to $28.8 billion in its most
recent quarter. Further, this important segment boasts a gross profit margin
above 75% -- far greater than its hardware gross margin. That high-margin
services stream helps smooth out hardware cycles and turns each iPhone, Mac, or
iPad in use into an annuity-like source of revenue for Apple. To this end,
management continues to emphasize the importance of Apple's installed base of
active devices, which Apple said achieved an all-time high "across all
product categories and geographic segments," in fiscal Q4. As of the last
time the company disclosed its total count of active devices, there were 2.35
billion. That kind of scale gives Apple a wide foundation for rolling out new
services and AI features without relying on blockbuster new device categories
every year. Management expects total revenue to grow 10% to 12% year over year
in the important holiday quarter, with iPhone revenue returning to double-digit
growth, suggesting that the iPhone 17 cycle and early AI features are providing
momentum heading into 2026. Of course, shares aren't cheap. Apple stock
currently trades at roughly 37 times earnings -- comfortably above the S&P
500's price-to-earnings ratio in the mid-20s. But given Apple's momentum in
services and the company's loyal customer base, I think this stock is worth its
premium price.
AMAT No news.
BWXT BWX Technologies has been on an incredible bull run this
year. The stock is up 73% YTD, and it's one of the best performers in my
personal portfolio. I bought BWX in mid-August, and I'm up almost 12%. But
despite that run, I think this stock is just getting started. And, thanks to a
new military project, BWX is perhaps the single best nuclear energy stock to
add to your portfolio for the long haul right now. BWX Technologies is a
Virginia-based nuclear engineering company that sits at the nexus of several
major trends in the industry, namely small modular reactors, or SMRs. These
reactors, exemplified by BWX's own BWXT Advanced Nuclear Reactor (BANR), are
small nuclear power plants that are usually prefabricated at a factory and
constructed on-site, where they provide power to data centers, military
installations, or remote locations like an ordinary nuclear plant. The BANR
reactor can generate 50 MW of electricity, enough to power 9,000 homes. SMRs
are the cutting edge of nuclear science today, but the core of BWX's business
is its naval nuclear engineering. Since the 1950s, the company has built
400-plus nuclear propulsion systems for submarines and aircraft carriers. The
government is BWXT's largest customer and is responsible for roughly 71% of its
revenue. BWX is also involved in terrestrial nuclear engineering for the Army
through Project Pele, which is attempting to create a microreactor small enough
to be transported on a flatbed truck. BWX is a great stock even without any new
military projects. It released its Q3 earnings on Nov. 3 and, as expected, they
were pretty great. Revenues surged 29% over Q3 2024 to hit $866 million,
revenue from government operations was up 10% and commercial operations grew
122%. Net income grew 19% over the same time frame, and EPS grew 20%, beating
expectations by 17%. The company also raised its guidance; it now expects 2025
annual revenue to exceed $3.1 billion and EPS to hit $3.75-$3.80, compared to
$3.65-$3.75 previously. In all, even without Project Janus, everything is
looking promising for BWX. But there's one catalyst I expect will send BWX even
higher. Back in May, President Trump signed Executive Order 14299, which
prompted the Secretary of Defense to create Project Janus, named for the
ancient two-faced Roman god of doorways, gates, transitions, and time. The goal
of the project is to have a nuclear reactor deployed to power a domestic
military base no later than Sept. 30, 2028. Janus will be modeled on NASA's
COTS program, which saw NASA collaborate with private companies to facilitate
space travel. Essentially, it outsources the creation of new rockets and space
transportation vessels to companies like SpaceX. Now, while no companies have
yet been selected to work with the Army on Project Janus, BWX could be an
obvious potential partner for two reasons. One, the company already has a
seven-decade relationship with the military through its naval nuclear
propulsion systems. Two, in the press release for Project Janus, it was
directly stated that the project would learn from and work closely with Project
Pele, which is led by BWX and is already producing results. I would be
absolutely shocked if BWX wasn't involved in Project Janus. The company is
already a strong buy based on secular tailwinds and its solid balance sheet.
But if BWX lands some Project Janus contracts, it's primed for even more
explosive growth Despite BWX Technology's incredible bull run in 2025, I think
it still has quite a long runway ahead of it, thanks to Project Janus and the
Trump administration's very pro-nuclear energy policy. Aside from any military
uses for nuclear energy, the Department of Energy is aiming to quadruple
America's nuclear capacity, from 100 gigawatts today to 400 gigawatts by the
middle of the century. Once the Project Janus contracts start rolling out, I
expect BWX's growth streak to continue on for years to come. While nothing is
guaranteed, investors might want to consider adding BWX Technologies to their
portfolios.
CNI No news.
COST Costco operates warehouse clubs that generate most of
their profit from membership fees rather than product markups. The 0.5% yield
may seem tiny, but the 27% payout ratio and history of massive special
dividends -- $15 per share in 2023 and $10 in 2020 -- make this low-yield stock
a major shareholder return play. Costco's fanatically loyal membership base has
funded 20-plus consecutive years of regular dividend increases.
EME No news.
GOOGL Google is the world's largest digital advertising platform
through its market-leading search (Google) and streaming service (YouTube). The
company also owns the third-largest cloud computing provider in Google Cloud,
and it is the majority owner of robotaxi provider Waymo. The company has also
developed its own leading LLM with Gemini, and it has designed its own custom
AI chips called tensor processing units (TPUs). Its competitive moat:
Alphabet's moat in search and generative AI comes from three main areas:
distribution, data, and its ad network. The company controls the market-leading
Chrome browser and Android smartphone operating system, and it has a deal with Apple
to be the default browser on its devices. This makes it the gateway to the
internet for most people in the world. Meanwhile, the company has decades of
search data and YouTube videos to help train models and help advertisers better
target users. It also has one of the world's most comprehensive ad networks,
which can serve advertisers of all shapes and sizes around the globe. In cloud
computing, the company is starting to develop a sizable edge by being the only
company with a complete tech stack, highlighted by having its own world-class
AI model and custom chips. Its TPUs give it a cost advantage in both training
and inference with its own AI model, which just creates a huge flywheel effect.
Growth opportunities: Alphabet is currently seeing search and AI meld into one,
which is starting to drive revenue growth. New AI features, such as AI
Overviews, Lens, and Circle to Search, are leading to more search queries,
while its stand-alone Gemini app has been gaining share, and its just-released
Gemini 3 model has garnered high praise. Meanwhile, its new AI Mode is also
driving more queries, as it lets users easily toggle between traditional search
and an AI chatbot. Given Alphabet's huge global ad network, it is the company
best positioned to eventually benefit from the increased usage that AI is driving.
Meanwhile, the company has a huge opportunity in cloud computing, as demand
continues to surge. Given the cost advantage it has of owning its own
world-class AI models and chips, it should see the biggest lift in profits of
any cloud company. Throw in Waymo and its progress in quantum computing, and
the company has a lot of growth opportunities ahead.
LIN You may wonder why one of the world's largest
industrial gas suppliers is on this list of potential hydrogen plays. As it
turns out, Linde uses hydrogen in many ways. Its main uses include supplying
hydrogen to refineries and chemical plants, but the company is now using the
element in clean energy projects. Linde is currently building green hydrogen
plants in both the US and Europe. If you're looking for a safer play in the
hydrogen space, Linde is a great option. The company provides solid financial
consistency including a dividend totaling $6 per share each year, and a
diversified business that embraces clean hydrogen projects. Linde provides an
avenue to invest in the future of hydrogen without as much risk and volatility
as Plug or Bloom. The downside is investors won't find exciting or fast growth
opportunities within this behemoth.
MSFT Microsoft isn't only a familiar brand in productivity
software, but is also one of the leading cloud computing services for
enterprise, positioning it to capitalize on the AI boom. Revenue grew 18% year
over year in the recent quarter, and analysts have been raising their long-term
earnings-growth projections. Microsoft's biggest growth engine is its cloud
services, which provide recurring revenue through subscriptions. This steady
revenue generation significantly lowers the risk profile of Microsoft's
business. Cloud revenue increased 26% year over year in the last quarter to $49
billion, accounting for approximately two-thirds of Microsoft's business. The
company's Azure enterprise cloud platform is serving as the digital backbone of
an increasing number of organizations. As CEO Satya Nadella said, Microsoft is
building "a planet-scale cloud and an AI factory." Azure revenue
surged 40% year over year last quarter, making it one of the fastest-growing
cloud providers. Microsoft has $392 billion in remaining performance
obligations with a weighted average duration of approximately two years. This
means that most of this revenue will be realized soon, rather than over the
long term. Customers are signing cloud deals to address near-term needs. This
demand will benefit Microsoft's pricing and margins, driving growth in free
cash flow. Analysts currently expect free cash flow to grow at an annualized
rate of 23%. The stock is trading at a high price-to-free-cash-flow multiple of
45, but even allowing for some multiple compression, the stock has a good
chance of doubling by 2030. Microsoft's momentum and opportunities to continue
scaling its cloud business should make it a rewarding investment.
NU Nu is an all-digital bank
based in Brazil. It already has more than 60% of the adult population in the
country as customers, and it's branching out in several ways. One is expanding
its platform. Although it already has a significant presence, there are many
new ways to monetize its users as it rolls out new products. It's also entering
new regions, and it already has 14% of the population in Mexico and 10% of the
population in Colombia on the platform. It also recently applied for a bank
charter in the U.S., and it has grand long-term expansion plans. The results
have been strong. Revenue and net income both increased 39% over last year in
the third quarter, while average revenue per active user rose from $11 to $12.
Nu has massive opportunities right now as well as a long growth runway.
NVDA NVDA has been a massive winner
for investors over the long term, for example, climbing 1,200% over the past
five years. But in 2025, performance of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip
giant, though still positive as the stock is heading for a 34% gain, has experienced
some ups and downs. News of President Donald Trump's import tariffs, as well as
export restrictions on chip sales to China, hurt the stock in the spring. And
though it rebounded in the following months, in recent weeks, concern about the
possibility of an AI bubble forming put new pressure on the stock. Moving
forward, though, Nvidia has what it takes to deliver significant growth in
earnings and stock price gains, too. Let's check out the real reason this AI
stock could be a huge winner in 2026. First, though, let's catch up on the full
Nvidia story. The company designs the fastest graphics processing units (GPUs)
on the market -- these are the chips that power the training of AI and the
actual application of the technology to real-world situations and problems.
Nvidia entered the space early, well before AI became an investment theme, and
this has helped it stay ahead of rivals -- and the company's ongoing innovation
is part of this success story, too. All of this has brought Nvidia explosive
earnings growth, with annual revenue and profit climbing in the double- and
triple-digits to reach record levels. And in the recent quarter, this growth
continued, with Nvidia again surpassing analysts' expectations and speaking of
strong demand for its Blackwell architecture and its update, Blackwell Ultra. As
mentioned, though, general concern about tariffs and economic growth, as well
as the valuations of AI stocks, have weighed on investor appetite for Nvidia
stock at certain moments this year. Even the company's recent blowout earnings
report didn't offer the stock a lift. Still, I'm optimistic about the tech
giant in 2026, and I think the following will be the real reason for earnings
and stock price gains. A few months ago, Nvidia chief Jensen Huang made an
interesting prediction: He said he expects AI infrastructure spending to reach
between $3 trillion and $4 trillion by the end of the decade. Meanwhile,
customers of Nvidia, such as cloud service providers Amazon and Microsoft,
recently spoke of soaring demand and their plans to expand capacity. All of
this points to an increase in need for the world's top-performing chips, and
these are Nvidia's GPUs. As this AI infrastructure spending story starts to
unfold, Nvidia should see the results in its earnings reports -- this, along
with the fact that Nvidia's valuation remains reasonable at 38x forward
earnings estimates, might put Nvidia back on investors' "buy list."
And all of this could make Nvidia a huge winner in 2026.
SPGI S&P Global has a business model that combines high
margins and recurring revenue. As one of the top credit rating agencies in the
U.S., S&P Global enjoys a strong market position alongside Moody's. Due to
the difficulty of breaking into the industry, the two companies essentially
have a duopoly over the market. Corporations, governments, and structured
finance product issuers rely on credit rating agencies to provide opinions on
companies and their ability to repay debts. Being in this position requires
trust, which can take decades to build up. Because S&P Global is one of the
few in this position, the company enjoys high margins and a steady stream of
revenue from ongoing credit issuance. S&P Global is well positioned to
benefit from rising global debt issuance from both countries and corporations.
It also has a robust data analytics business that provides alternative revenue
when issuance activity slows. With over 53 years of raising its dividend
payout, S&P Global is a Dividend King worth buying today.
TSM One of the companies best positioned for the ongoing
artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom is Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing. While competition has increased in the AI chip race, with more
companies turning to ASICs to run some of their AI workloads, TSMC remains in a
prime position because it is the company that makes most of the world's
advanced chips. Manufacturing advanced semiconductors is not easy, and TSMC has
proven to be the only company that can consistently manufacture chips at
smaller node sizes (the number of transistors that fit on a chip) with high
yields (few defects) at scale. This has made it a key cog in the semiconductor
value chain, leading to strong pricing power. It also gives it solid
visibility, with the company projecting that AI chip demand will increase by a
more-than-40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next few years.
TTD The Trade Desk has had a turbulent 2025. It has
posted two quarters that weren't well received, which caused the stock to drop
on two separate occasions. The Trade Desk is an advertising technology company
that helps ad buyers place their ads in the most optimal spot, whether that's
on a podcast or on connected TV. This is a massive market that's continuously
evolving, which is why The Trade Desk launched its next platform iteration,
Kokai, which integrated AI features. However, this platform wasn't well
received, and many clients have pulled back spending as a result. This caused
The Trade Desk's growth rate to drop, even though it still grew revenue at an
18% pace in Q3. The Trade Desk is improving its Kokai platform and looks to be
righting its ship. However, the market hasn't given The Trade Desk the benefit
of the doubt, and the stock trades for just 21 times next year's earnings. That's
a steal for this stock, and investors should be loading up on it while they
still can.
V Anyone keeping long-term tabs on this company
likely knows last quarter's top-line growth of 12% is a bit above long-term
norms, boosted by the swell of cross-border payments the company is now able to
facilitate, and has reason to. As Visa Direct's Europe chief Anastasia Serikova
noted earlier this year, "Cross-border payments have seen substantial
growth due to the increase in international trade, global workforce mobility,
and remittances, with total global cross-border payment flows growing at around
9% (CAGR) annually." This growth engine isn't apt to sputter to a stop in
the foreseeable future, either. Serikova adds, "With the increased
mobility of people, goods, and services across borders, total cross-border
payments are projected to reach $250 trillion by 2027, a $100 trillion increase
from 2017." Then there's the other, largely overlooked reason to scoop up
some/more shares of Visa in the wake of its pullback from its June peak. That
is, while worries about its growth prospects, regulatory headwinds,
competition, and the stock's steep valuation are all credible, what's not being
priced in is Visa's potential upside from the use of artificial intelligence
technologies. Whereas some institutions are utilizing AI simply for the sake of
using it (without any clear positive impact), a complex, digitally focused,
data-rich company like this payment middleman can actually do something
constructive with artificial intelligence. This includes AI-powered customer
service agents, data analysis, and cybersecurity in an industry that's highly
vulnerable to fraud, just to name a few. It's actually a pretty big deal that's
not being fully reflected in the stock's price.
WM Waste Management has raised its dividend for 22
straight years. Over the past decade, its dividend has grown at an 8% CAGR.
That dividend growth has contributed significantly to the stock's total returns
-- in just 10 years, your investment in Waste Management stock would have
increased by fivefold. Waste Management provides critical services of managing
waste and is the largest player in the industry. It's a recession-resilient
business, generating stable revenue and cash flows that can support steady
dividend growth. With an extensive landfill network, Waste Management is also
the largest recycler in the U.S. Waste Management has just announced financial
goals through 2027. It expects to grow revenue at a rate of around 9% CAGR,
with the majority of growth coming from its healthcare solutions -- a business
formed as a result of Waste Management's recent acquisition of medical waste
management giant Stericycle. Moreover, the company expects to generate nearly
$10 billion in FCF between 2025 and 2027, which should support annual dividend
raises. Given its solid track record and high visibility into the future, Waste
Management is a fantastic dividend stock to buy now, despite its modest 1.6%
yield. Compounding dividends often more than make up for small yields in the
long run.
Stock Picks:
Discussed
valuations of AI-related stocks and specifically, AMD’s overvaluation and expectations
from its OpenAI partnership. AMD’s
OpenAI deal is non-exclusive, currently trades at 60 times forward earnings and
has issued warrants that create dilution risk for existing stockholders.
DK:
Teradyne (TER); engages in the development and sale of automatic test systems.
It operates through the following business segments: Semiconductor Test,
Robotics, and All Other. The Semiconductor Test segment designs, manufactures,
and markets semiconductor test products and services. The Robotics segment
includes operations related to the design, manufacturing, and marketing of
collaborative robotic arms, autonomous mobile robots, and advanced robotic
control software.
CX:
Boeing (BA); an aerospace company, which engages in the manufacture of
commercial jetliners and defense, space, and security systems. It operates
through the following segments: Commercial Airplanes (BCA), Defense, Space and
Security (BDS), Global Services (BGS), and Boeing Capital (BCC). The Commercial
Airplanes segment includes the development, production, and market of
commercial jet aircraft and provides fleet support services, principally to the
commercial airline industry worldwide. The Defense, Space and Security segment
refers to the research, development, production and modification of manned and
unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems for global strike, including
fighter and combat rotorcraft aircraft and missile systems, global mobility,
including tanker, rotorcraft and tilt-rotor aircraft, and airborne surveillance
and reconnaissance, including command and control, battle management and
airborne anti-submarine aircraft. The Global Services segment provides services
to commercial and defense customers. The Boeing Capital segment seeks to ensure
that Boeing customers have the financing they need to buy and take delivery of
their Boeing product and manages overall financing exposure.
JL:
Researching copper stocks such as SCCO, FCX and HBM. Also, robotics companies
like BSX. No picks yet.
PR:
Sell a portion of TTD due to poor YTD performance.
On Monday, November 10, 2025
the following order(s) filled:
Sold
30 AMD @ $244.5148/share; net $7335.45
Sold
500 TTD @ $42.18/share; net 21,090.00
Buy
52 BA @ $193.3415/share; total $10,053.76
Meeting adjourned at 3:44
PM.
Respectfully submitted by
Ken Bauman.
Next Meeting: Thursday,
December 4, 2025 at 2:30 p.m. at:
3054 Sunrise Blvd Suite J
Rancho Cordova, CA 95742
(916) 706-0343