Are We There Yet?
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Are We There Yet? One of the members of one of my investment clubs sent out a link to this article which I thought was both interesting, easy to read and humorous. Are We There Yet? What do you think? Do you agree with his statement? "Unfortunately, our Lance Armstrong economy will at some point have its Oprah Winfrey moment, when it will have to fess up." Is your investment club jumping on the bull market band wagon or feeling a little queasy from the heights? Laurie Frederiksen Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com Become our Facebook friend! www.facebook.com/bivio Follow us on twitter! www.twitter.com/bivio Follow Us on Google+ Click here to Subscribe to the Club Cafe email list. Click here to Unsubscribe My Investment Club remains bullish by a large majority. I have been negative on this market - and mostly wrong to date - but I am convinced that an unprecedented "correction" is in the making.
That said, I like to stay invested and conservative. I have been "ok" with this strategy, until this week. I will/may buy some more as we head down, but these are precarious times. Best regards, Leo On Fri, May 31, 2013 at 10:08 AM, Laurie Frederiksen <laurie@bivio.biz> wrote: One of the members of one of my investment clubs sent out a link to this article which I thought was both interesting, easy to read and humorous. Interesting to hear your club is bullish on the market Leo. What factors are contributing to their sentiment? Laurie Frederiksen
Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com Become our Facebook friend! www.facebook.com/bivio Follow us on twitter! www.twitter.com/bivio Follow Us on Google+ Click here to Subscribe to the Club Cafe email list. Click here to Unsubscribe On Fri, May 31, 2013 at 6:15 PM, Leo Cardillo <leofcardillo@gmail.com> wrote:
Hey Leo
When the morons at the Fed get done printing 85 billion dollars of worthless money every month to keep Obammie looking good all Hell will break loose. No country in the history of mankind has got away with it. In the end it will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.
Happy Investing
From: "Leo Cardillo" <leofcardillo@gmail.com> My Investment Club remains bullish by a large majority.
I have been negative on this market - and mostly wrong to date - but I am convinced that an unprecedented "correction" is in the making.
That said, I like to stay invested and conservative. I have been "ok" with this strategy, until this week. I will/may buy some more as we head down, but these are precarious times.
Best regards,
Leo On Fri, May 31, 2013 at 10:08 AM, Laurie Frederiksen <laurie@bivio.biz> wrote: One of the members of one of my investment clubs sent out a link to this article which I thought was both interesting, easy to read and humorous. There are a couple ways to look at the current equity rally. The market tends to be forward looking and this rally might be pointing to a strong economic recovery (regardless of whether it is fed induced or not). On the flip side, the market could now be overvalued as the mostly jobless recovery might run out of steam as the recent gains over the last three years have come mostly from companies buying back their own shares, reducing head count and employing offshore labor to increase margins. Gains will eventually have limited returns if companies continue to utilize this strategy. A possible third option, in my opinion, is that the ultra low interest rates mostly as a result of quantitative easing, are forcing former bond and other conservative investors into the market causing demand on the buy side for
equities. Personally, I think it's a combination of these three, and one would be a fool to try to time such events with more than a quarter of of their portfolio as to reduce the risk of being wrong. My 401k is by far, the largest portion of my savings. I am still relatively young (42), and currently have a position that is 75% equity/25% bond. I have periodically reduced my holdings to 50/50 equity/bonds and occasionally I am 100% in equities. At this point in time, I am thinking about reducing my position to 50/50 as I do think this rally might be a little over done. Though I am waiting at least till the third week in June as I lowered my portfolio from 100% equities in the third week of March and don't want to be flagged for frequent trading (Fidelity has strict rules about this). Keep in mind, I am leaving all of my investments in my IRAs and Investment Clubs 100% vested in equities regardless of my 401k position. So at worst, my overall portfolio is no less than about 65% stock. I've been quite lucky with my market timing in the past. For the most part, I ignore the little ups and downs such as the recent threat of Obamacare or sequestering or anything else that the media likes to scare us with (wasn't there supposed to be some kind of maelstrom around New Years?). There have only been two times that my portfolio was less than 50% stocks and that was just ahead of the tech bubble bursting in 2000 and just after the fiscal crisis started in 2008. Otherwise, I've been 50% stocks or more, and mostly 100% vested in stocks. Market timing is really tough. I waited a little too long to get back in during the quick recovery after the fiscal crisis. Nailed the tech bubble though. No one can do much better.
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