In last nights Challenge Club meeting we were discussing a Canadian company called Stantec (STN).
We were looking at YOY sales growth numbers for the most recently reported quarter and found big differences between the sales for the 2010 quarter being reported by Valueline and the sales shown in Morningstar data.
If you are going to project the future from the past, this highlights the reason to really know where your numbers are coming from and where to find out what is "right".
The authoritative answer to a question like this is easily found by going to the source document for the data. This is the actual earnings release on the Stantec website in the investor relations section.
It is an interesting situation because companies in Canada have recently switched from Canadian Accounting Standards to IFRS which are the international standards. In accounting, when there is a situation like this, it is called a "Change in Accounting Principle". Not only must the current data be displayed using the new standards, any historical data presented for comparison must be restated and presented as if the new standards had been in effect at the time. This is very important if you are projecting the future from the past. You want to be using comparable accounting data to do that.
The Valueline data, correctly, is showing the restated numbers for quarterly sales numbers for 2010. The Morningstar data is not. In addition, Morningstar data is showing net sales for 2011 but Gross sales for 2010. This compounds the mistake as they are two entirely different things.
External data sources were very important when it was cumbersome to get company information directly from the company. That's not the case anymore. You can easily access information you need to track an investment right from the company or SEC website. If you have invested in a company or are considering investing in a company and you are using an outside data source, it's worth a few minutes of your time to check the actual company reports and make sure they agree with what you are using to make your decisions.
-- Laurie Frederiksen Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com
Laurie, Thank you for this explanation and wise advise.
Roy Chastain
"Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment."
Will Rogers
--- On Wed, 9/21/11, Laurie Frederiksen <laurie@bivio.biz> wrote:
From: Laurie Frederiksen <laurie@bivio.biz> Subject: [club_cafe] Projecting the Future From the Past To: "The Club Cafe" <club_cafe@bivio.com>, "Challenge Club" <challengeclub@bivio.com> Date: Wednesday, September 21, 2011, 9:19 AM
In last nights Challenge Club meeting we were discussing a Canadian company called Stantec (STN).
We were looking at YOY sales growth numbers for the most recently reported quarter and found big differences between the sales for the 2010 quarter
being reported by Valueline and the sales shown in Morningstar data.
If you are going to project the future from the past, this highlights the reason to really know where your numbers are coming from and where to find out what is "right".
The authoritative answer to a question like this is easily found by going to the source document for the data. This is the actual earnings release on the Stantec website in the investor relations section.
It is an interesting situation because companies in Canada have recently switched from Canadian Accounting Standards to IFRS which are the international standards. <skip>
The Valueline data, correctly, is showing the restated numbers for quarterly sales numbers for 2010. The Morningstar data is not. In addition, Morningstar data is showing net sales for 2011 but Gross sales for 2010. This compounds the mistake as they are two entirely different things.
External data sources were very important when it was cumbersome to get company information directly from the company. That's not the case anymore. You can easily access information you need to track an investment right from the company or SEC website. If you have invested in a company or are considering investing in a company and you are using an outside data source, it's worth a few minutes of your time to check the actual company reports and make sure they agree with what you are using to make your decisions.
-- Laurie Frederiksen Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com
Last night's Ticker Talk discussed the same subject. Their contention was that the different data figures weren't "wrong" just "different" and it was up to the individual to understand the differences and decide which numbers to use.
There were 2 different companies presented. Using the BI data service, Boston Beer (SAM) 's 2nd quarter eps is being shown as basic $2.12 and diluted as $2.01 while Value Line is showing an estimate of $1.23. Ann Cuneaz showed how to go to both the company website and the SEC pages where there was a small note that the earnings of $2.01 were accurate, BUT there was a $0.92 credit because of a litigation settlement. She had decided that she didn't feel a settlement should be included in everyday earnings so she then showed how to revise data when using the Online SSG form.
It sounds like we will be getting very different numbers depending if we use ValueLine data or Morningstar .
Diane
From: club_cafe@bivio.com [mailto:club_cafe@bivio.com] On Behalf Of Laurie Frederiksen Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 9:19 AM To: The Club Cafe; Challenge Club Subject: [club_cafe] Projecting the Future From the Past
In last nights Challenge Club meeting we were discussing a Canadian company called Stantec (STN).
We were looking at YOY sales growth numbers for the most recently reported quarter and found big differences between the sales for the 2010 quarter being reported by Valueline and the sales shown in Morningstar data.
If you are going to project the future from the past, this highlights the reason to really know where your numbers are coming from and where to find out what is "right".
The authoritative answer to a question like this is easily found by going to the source document for the data. This is the actual earnings release on the Stantec website in the investor relations section.
It is an interesting situation because companies in Canada have recently switched from Canadian Accounting Standards to IFRS which are the international standards. In accounting, when there is a situation like this, it is called a "Change in Accounting Principle". Not only must the current data be displayed using the new standards, any historical data presented for comparison must be restated and presented as if the new standards had been in effect at the time. This is very important if you are projecting the future from the past. You want to be using comparable accounting data to do that.
The Valueline data, correctly, is showing the restated numbers for quarterly sales numbers for 2010. The Morningstar data is not. In addition, Morningstar data is showing net sales for 2011 but Gross sales for 2010. This compounds the mistake as they are two entirely different things.
External data sources were very important when it was cumbersome to get company information directly from the company. That's not the case anymore. You can easily access information you need to track an investment right from the company or SEC website. If you have invested in a company or are considering investing in a company and you are using an outside data source, it's worth a few minutes of your time to check the actual company reports and make sure they agree with what you are using to make your decisions. -- Laurie Frederiksen Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com
That is very interesting. Ticker Talk, BI Webnair, last night talked about data sources as well and reinforced your information. They also gave a quick search tip at SEC.gov for getting to financial data. Go to sec.gov, choose "filings and forms", then choose "search company filings", then you have the option of searching via company name or ticker, once you have the listings for your company you can quickly find what you are looking for by searching for either 10K, 10Q or 8-K's. 8-K's are press releases. IF the 8-K's are preceeded with the number 2.0 or 9.0 they pertain to financial data so you can quickly find the ones you want to look at. The bottom line is any data decrepency is a red flag to look further. Morningstar does less
normalization than other data sources.
Thanks Laurie for your information.
Marilyn Warren
From: Laurie Frederiksen <laurie@bivio.biz> To: The Club Cafe <club_cafe@bivio.com>; Challenge Club <challengeclub@bivio.com> Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 9:19 AM Subject: [club_cafe] Projecting the Future From the Past
In last nights Challenge Club meeting we were discussing a Canadian company called Stantec (STN).
We were looking at YOY sales growth numbers for the most recently reported quarter and found big differences between the sales for the 2010 quarter being reported by Valueline and the sales shown in Morningstar data.
If you are going to project the future from the past, this highlights the reason to really know where your numbers are coming from and where to find out what is "right".
The authoritative answer to a question like this is easily found by going to the source document for the data. This is the actual earnings release on the Stantec website in the investor relations section.
It is an interesting situation because companies in Canada have recently switched from Canadian Accounting Standards to IFRS which are the international standards. In accounting, when there is a situation like
this, it is called a "Change in Accounting Principle". Not only must the current data be displayed using the new standards, any historical data presented for comparison must be restated and presented as if the new standards had been in effect at the time. This is very important if you are projecting the future from the past. You want to be using comparable accounting data to do that.
The Valueline data, correctly, is showing the restated numbers for quarterly sales numbers for 2010. The Morningstar data is not. In addition, Morningstar data is showing net sales for 2011 but Gross sales for 2010. This compounds the mistake as they are two entirely different things.
External data sources were very important when it was cumbersome to get company information directly from the company. That's not the case anymore. You can easily access information you need to
track an investment right from the company or SEC website. If you have invested in a company or are considering investing in a company and you are using an outside data source, it's worth a few minutes of your time to check the actual company reports and make sure they agree with what you are using to make your decisions. -- Laurie Frederiksen Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com
Thanks Marilyn. This is very true. I also find that I can find the SEC filings in nicer readable formats (Frequently Word, Excel and PDF versions) in the investor relation sections of the company websites.
On Wed, Sep 21, 2011 at 1:08 PM, MarilynandLee Warren <marilynleew@yahoo.com> wrote:
That is very interesting. Ticker Talk, BI Webnair, last night talked about data sources as well and reinforced your information. They also gave a quick search tip at SEC.gov for getting to financial data. Go to sec.gov, choose "filings and forms", then choose "search company filings", then you have the option of searching via company name or ticker, once you have the listings for your company you can quickly find what you are looking for by searching for either 10K, 10Q or 8-K's. 8-K's are press releases. IF the 8-K's are preceeded with the number 2.0 or 9.0 they pertain to financial data so you can quickly find the ones you want to look at. The bottom line is any data decrepency is a red flag to look further. Morningstar does less
normalization than other data sources.
Subject: [club_cafe] Projecting the Future From the Past
In last nights Challenge Club meeting we were discussing a Canadian company called Stantec (STN).
We were looking at YOY sales growth numbers for the most recently reported quarter and found big differences between the sales for the 2010 quarter being reported by Valueline and the sales shown in Morningstar data.
If you are going to project the future from the past, this highlights the reason to really know where your numbers are coming from and where to find out what is "right".
The authoritative answer to a question like this is easily found by going to the source document for the data. This is the actual earnings release on the Stantec website in the investor relations section.
It is an interesting situation because companies in Canada have recently switched from Canadian Accounting Standards to IFRS which are the international standards. In accounting, when there is a situation like
this, it is called a "Change in Accounting Principle". Not only must the current data be displayed using the new standards, any historical data presented for comparison must be restated and presented as if the new standards had been in effect at the time. This is very important if you are projecting the future from the past. You want to be using comparable accounting data to do that.
The Valueline data, correctly, is showing the restated numbers for quarterly sales numbers for 2010. The Morningstar data is not. In addition, Morningstar data is showing net sales for 2011 but Gross sales for 2010. This compounds the mistake as they are two entirely different things.
External data sources were very important when it was cumbersome to get company information directly from the company. That's not the case anymore. You can easily access information you need to
track an investment right from the company or SEC website. If you have invested in a company or are considering investing in a company and you are using an outside data source, it's worth a few minutes of your time to check the actual company reports and make sure they agree with what you are using to make your decisions.
-- Laurie Frederiksen Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com
That's very true Diane. Just don't confuse "normalized" with "incorrect" data or "restated" data. Some of the data sources make judgements and adjust the accounting numbers. This is "normalized" data. This is the same thing companies do when they report "pro forma" numbers along with the GAAP earnings numbers. It's up to you to understand and decide whether or not to accept their judgments.
"Restated" data is not normalized data. It is data that is adjusted following strict accounting rules. In general, when making historical comparisons, I'd recommend starting with these numbers.
"Incorrect" data is neither. Comparing gross sales from one year to net sales from another is just incorrect.
Last night's Ticker Talk discussed the same subject. Their contention was that the different data figures weren't "wrong" just "different" and it was up to the individual to understand the differences and decide which numbers to use.
There were 2 different companies presented. Using the BI data service, Boston Beer (SAM) 's 2nd quarter eps is being shown as basic $2.12 and diluted as $2.01 while Value Line is showing an estimate of $1.23. Ann Cuneaz showed how to go to both the company website and the SEC pages where there was a small note that the earnings of $2.01 were accurate, BUT there was a $0.92 credit because of a litigation settlement. She had decided that she didn't feel a settlement should be included in everyday earnings so she then showed how to revise data when using the Online SSG form.
It sounds like we will be getting very different numbers depending if we use ValueLine data or Morningstar .
Diane
Rosenthal on
Laurie,
Sorry I missed
the meeting as this info. is frustrating to me. I like my numbers to jive
and with all the work it takes to do analyze a stock not having the data
normalized makes me want to tear my hair out at times. I read some
follow-up messages and though it's nice to learn one can dig for the right
numbers to correct the basic numbers on the SSG I'm thinking why should we have
to. I am having less and less confidence in using the download service
from Morningstar as I do like to check against VL. Am now thinking
that BI's use of that service may not have been the best move to make.
It's very frustrating to think that I'll now have to go to lot's of other
sources to feel comfortable with the data downloaded into my SSG. I want
to save work not create more work!
Joanne
From:
club_cafe@bivio.com [mailto:club_cafe@bivio.com] On Behalf Of Laurie Frederiksen Sent: Wednesday, September 21,
2011 9:19 AM To: The Club Cafe; Challenge Club Subject: [club_cafe] Projecting
the Future From the Past
In last nights Challenge Club meeting we were discussing a Canadian
company called Stantec (STN).
We were looking at YOY sales growth numbers for the most recently reported
quarter and found big differences between the sales for the 2010 quarter being
reported by Valueline and the sales shown in Morningstar data.
If you are going to project the future from the past, this highlights the
reason to really know where your numbers are coming from and where to find out
what is "right".
The authoritative answer to a question like this is easily found by going to
the source document for the data. This is the actual earnings release on
the Stantec website in the investor relations section.
It is an interesting situation because companies in have recently switched from
Canadian Accounting Standards to IFRS which are the international
standards. In accounting, when there is a situation like this, it
is called a "Change in Accounting Principle". Not only must the
current data be displayed using the new standards, any historical data
presented for comparison must be restated and presented as if the new standards
had been in effect at the time. This is very important if you are
projecting the future from the past. You want to be using comparable
accounting data to do that.
The Valueline data, correctly, is showing the restated numbers for quarterly
sales numbers for 2010. The Morningstar data is not. In
addition, Morningstar data is showing net sales for 2011 but Gross sales
for 2010. This compounds the mistake as they are two entirely
different things.
External data sources were very important when it was cumbersome to get company
information directly from the company. That's not the case
anymore. You can easily access information you need to track an
investment right from the company or SEC website. If you have
invested in a company or are considering investing in a company and you
are using an outside data source, it's worth a few minutes of your time
to check the actual company reports and make sure they agree with what you are
using to make your decisions.
--
Laurie Frederiksen
Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com
I think you bring up a good point. Investing in a company where there is a lot of "normalizing" going on, may require more work to be successful at than one with cleaner, simpler financials. There is no "one size fits all" tool for evaluating investments. If there was, everyone would use it. All you can do is understand the strengths and weaknesses of the one you have chosen to use and make sure it works well for the things you want to invest in.
I've found myself that it can be a bit more work to dig further into the company reports but that the time and effort involved more than pays off. From my experience, I've done better following less companies but in more detail. There are a lot of good stocks to invest in. I've found I don't need to own one of each to make up a good portfolio. So overall, I don't really spend a lot more time.
Laurie
On Wed, Sep 21, 2011 at 1:34 PM, Rosenthal <rosenthal@nwi.net> wrote:
Laurie,
Sorry I missed
the meeting as this info. is frustrating to me. I like my numbers to jive
and with all the work it takes to do analyze a stock not having the data
normalized makes me want to tear my hair out at times. I read some
follow-up messages and though it's nice to learn one can dig for the right
numbers to correct the basic numbers on the SSG I'm thinking why should we have
to. I am having less and less confidence in using the download service
from Morningstar as I do like to check against VL. Am now thinking
that BI's use of that service may not have been the best move to make.
It's very frustrating to think that I'll now have to go to lot's of other
sources to feel comfortable with the data downloaded into my SSG. I want
to save work not create more work!
Subject: [club_cafe] Projecting
the Future From the Past
In last nights Challenge Club meeting we were discussing a Canadian
company called Stantec (STN).
We were looking at YOY sales growth numbers for the most recently reported
quarter and found big differences between the sales for the 2010 quarter being
reported by Valueline and the sales shown in Morningstar data.
If you are going to project the future from the past, this highlights the
reason to really know where your numbers are coming from and where to find out
what is "right".
The authoritative answer to a question like this is easily found by going to
the source document for the data. This is the actual earnings release on
the Stantec website in the investor relations section.
It is an interesting situation because companies in Canada have recently switched from
Canadian Accounting Standards to IFRS which are the international
standards. In accounting, when there is a situation like this, it
is called a "Change in Accounting Principle". Not only must the
current data be displayed using the new standards, any historical data
presented for comparison must be restated and presented as if the new standards
had been in effect at the time. This is very important if you are
projecting the future from the past. You want to be using comparable
accounting data to do that.
The Valueline data, correctly, is showing the restated numbers for quarterly
sales numbers for 2010. The Morningstar data is not. In
addition, Morningstar data is showing net sales for 2011 but Gross sales
for 2010. This compounds the mistake as they are two entirely
different things.
External data sources were very important when it was cumbersome to get company
information directly from the company. That's not the case
anymore. You can easily access information you need to track an
investment right from the company or SEC website. If you have
invested in a company or are considering investing in a company and you
are using an outside data source, it's worth a few minutes of your time
to check the actual company reports and make sure they agree with what you are
using to make your decisions.
--
Laurie Frederiksen
Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com
If you are intrested in teh filings with the Canadian equivalent of the SEC, you can find dat at http://www.sedar.com/
SEDAR offers a site similar to EDGAR that provides the financial statements. Works much simpler than EDGAR too.
Mark Eckman
On Wed, Sep 21, 2011 at 11:19 AM, Laurie Frederiksen <laurie@bivio.biz> wrote:
In last nights Challenge Club meeting we were discussing a Canadian company called Stantec (STN).
We were looking at YOY sales growth numbers for the most recently reported quarter and found big differences between the sales for the 2010 quarter being reported by Valueline and the sales shown in Morningstar data.
If you are going to project the future from the past, this highlights the reason to really know where your numbers are coming from and where to find out what is "right".
The authoritative answer to a question like this is easily found by going to the source document for the data. This is the actual earnings release on the Stantec website in the investor relations section.
It is an interesting situation because companies in Canada have recently switched from Canadian Accounting Standards to IFRS which are the international standards. In accounting, when there is a situation like this, it is called a "Change in Accounting Principle". Not only must the current data be displayed using the new standards, any historical data presented for comparison must be restated and presented as if the new standards had been in effect at the time. This is very important if you are projecting the future from the past. You want to be using comparable accounting data to do that.
The Valueline data, correctly, is showing the restated numbers for quarterly sales numbers for 2010. The Morningstar data is not. In addition, Morningstar data is showing net sales for 2011 but Gross sales for 2010. This compounds the mistake as they are two entirely different things.
External data sources were very important when it was cumbersome to get company information directly from the company. That's not the case anymore. You can easily access information you need to track an investment right from the company or SEC website. If you have invested in a company or are considering investing in a company and you are using an outside data source, it's worth a few minutes of your time to check the actual company reports and make sure they agree with what you are using to make your decisions.
-- Laurie Frederiksen Invest with your friends! www.bivio.com