What indications are you seeing that show that we should be seeing that pullback shortly? I would like to increase my knowledge so I can also anticipate some of these events?
Thanks
Susan
Paul Madison on
As I have said many times, I trust my gut more than I do technical signals.
To me it feels like there are a lot of short term headwinds ahead:
The election.
Major tax changes at the end of the year unless a lame duck session of congress can do anything, after what will no doubt be a very heated election.
Dividend paying stocks (read DOW and S&P 500) have been running really hard ahead of the rest of the market. Yet taxes on dividends may go up fairly steeply if nothing happens before the end of the year which might cause a sell off.
Europe is far from being out of the woods on the debt/budget problems.
We have not really done anything about our country's financial situation other than kick the can down the road.
Asia Pacific is slowing a bit.
The market has run very hard for the last twelve months.
A correction of some type seems very plausible. I don't know that I think it will be a major one just a 10-15% or so correction (if I had to place a guess).
Now having said all that, a long term trading axiom is that "A Bull Market climbs a wall of worry!" So, I might be, even most likely could be, totally wrong.
On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 7:22 PM, Susan Tanoe <susanlt@gmail.com> wrote:
Cool Dude,
What indications are you seeing that show that we should be seeing that pullback shortly? I would like to increase my knowledge so I can also anticipate some of these events?
Thanks
Susan
Malcolm Myles on
I concur. When the press is all about "new
highs in the market" and "disparity between wall street and main
street"... it is a warning sign that a correction is overdue in a
heated market. I know it is tempting to chase a stock because "it
will never be cheaper" or "its a money maker", but there is only
one rule in the market that I have found true every time: what
goes up, comes down.
The market will correct and the trigger will most likely be
something stupid - J&J will restate earnings loss because of
absorbent chemical plant explosion in Japan. The Mad Money
disciples will get the text/email and the sell orders will out
pace the buy orders and Armageddon will once again rule the day.
Been here, done that.
And when the correction comes that will be the time to buy. Now is
time to protect cash and raise cash if your position is too rich
(FAST for me). Buy low, sell high... were high now.
Spend this time targeting those companies you have in your
portfolio that you want to increase the position and those
companies that you would like to add to your portfolio. If they
are in your purchase range and you won't regret the buy in five
years, buy. If not, keep an eye on them, wait for the news item
that will trigger the drop, play Market Bingo on MSNBC and CNN,
study, walk the dog, cook good food & eat well, drink great
coffee, better wine, enjoy the sunrises and sunsets.
I also reserve the right to be totally wrong, but I will have
walked the dog, eaten & drank well, and continued to be awed
by the natural cycle of the sun... yeah, I could be wrong... but
not totally.
Malcolm
On 10/4/2012 9:13 AM, Paul Madison
wrote:
As
I have said many times, I trust my gut more than I do
technical signals.
To
me it feels like there are a lot of short term headwinds
ahead:
The
election.
Major
tax changes at the end of the year unless a lame duck session
of congress can do anything, after what will no doubt be a
very heated election.
Dividend
paying stocks (read DOW and S&P 500) have been running
really hard ahead of the rest of the market. Yet taxes on
dividends may go up fairly steeply if nothing happens before
the end of the year which might cause a sell off.
Europe
is far from being out of the woods on the debt/budget
problems.
We
have not really done anything about our country's financial
situation other than kick the can down the road.
Asia
Pacific is slowing a bit.
The
market has run very hard for the last twelve months.
A
correction of some type seems very plausible. I don't know
that I think it will be a major one just a 10-15% or so
correction (if I had to place a guess).
Now
having said all that, a long term trading axiom is that "A
Bull Market climbs a wall of worry!" So, I might be, even
most likely could be, totally wrong.
On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 7:22 PM, Susan
Tanoe <susanlt@gmail.com>
wrote:
Cool Dude,
What indications are you seeing that show that we should
be seeing that pullback shortly? I would like to increase
my knowledge so I can also anticipate some of these events?
Thanks
Susan
Susan Tanoe on
Thanks Gentlemen,
I am always willing to learn more and was interested in your take on what is happening in the market.
Susan
On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 3:10 PM, Malcolm Myles <malcolm@mmyles.com> wrote:
I concur. When the press is all about "new highs in the market" and "disparity between wall street and main street"... it is a warning sign that a correction is overdue in a heated market. I know it is tempting to chase a stock because "it will never be cheaper" or "its a money maker", but there is only one rule in the market that I have found true every time: what goes up, comes down.
The market will correct and the trigger will most likely be something stupid - J&J will restate earnings loss because of absorbent chemical plant explosion in Japan. The Mad Money disciples will get the text/email and the sell orders will out pace the buy orders and Armageddon will once again rule the day. Been here, done that.
And when the correction comes that will be the time to buy. Now is time to protect cash and raise cash if your position is too rich (FAST for me). Buy low, sell high... were high now.
Spend this time targeting those companies you have in your portfolio that you want to increase the position and those companies that you would like to add to your portfolio. If they are in your purchase range and you won't regret the buy in five years, buy. If not, keep an eye on them, wait for the news item that will trigger the drop, play Market Bingo on MSNBC and CNN, study, walk the dog, cook good food & eat well, drink great coffee, better wine, enjoy the sunrises and sunsets.
I also reserve the right to be totally wrong, but I will have walked the dog, eaten & drank well, and continued to be awed by the natural cycle of the sun... yeah, I could be wrong... but not totally.
Malcolm
On 10/4/2012 9:13 AM, Paul Madison wrote:
As I have said many times, I trust my gut more than I do technical signals.
To me it feels like there are a lot of short term headwinds ahead:
The election.
Major tax changes at the end of the year unless a lame duck session of congress can do anything, after what will no doubt be a very heated election.
Dividend paying stocks (read DOW and S&P 500) have been running really hard ahead of the rest of the market. Yet taxes on dividends may go up fairly steeply if nothing happens before the end of the year which might cause a sell off.
Europe is far from being out of the woods on the debt/budget problems.
We have not really done anything about our country's financial situation other than kick the can down the road.
Asia Pacific is slowing a bit.
The market has run very hard for the last twelve months.
A correction of some type seems very plausible. I don't know that I think it will be a major one just a 10-15% or so correction (if I had to place a guess).
Now having said all that, a long term trading axiom is that "A Bull Market climbs a wall of worry!" So, I might be, even most likely could be, totally wrong.
On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 7:22 PM, Susan Tanoe <susanlt@gmail.com> wrote:
Cool Dude,
What indications are you seeing that show that we should be seeing that pullback shortly? I would like to increase my knowledge so I can also anticipate some of these events?