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TITN
Another trade to talk about. Well, I'd like to talk about it with someone. (hint, hint)

I wanted to open a position in Titan Industries, Inc. They sell manufacturing and farm equipment. Good numbers, fair to good expectations - ever meet a farmer who was completely sure of the future?

I put in an order:

12/04/12 STO 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 1.45, 13 days, APR 126% NP $280.30

This order was slightly OTM and I fully expected to get the stock put to me as I want to start a position. I just like the price to be 22.50-1.45=21.05 (cnc - commissions not considered) which is close to a recent low price in the stock after a down turn due to a disappointing 2Q earnings and potential disappointing 3Q report. The stock was recommended back at 25 and is still a "buy up to" 24.70 or so. So I thought I was real lucky to get in at 21.05.

Why does every newsletter, ever seminar, ever webcast tell you "do your own due diligence"... because, its your money, not theirs... do the math.

I caught an article posted hours after my trade that basically pointed out that TITN has a 29.50% Short Interest! Hell of a lot of shares are betting against this stock! Hell of a lot... like 5,000,000 a lot. Ufh Duh... that's a lot even for West Fargo (TITN headquarters).

So, in spite of there being strong articles on BOTH sides of this stock, and a continued buy recommendation from my source, the fact that there are so many bets against the stock means what for me?

It means I'll never see my shares put to me with this trade as there is a Short Squeeze on - price is climbing and short sellers take their losses by buying back their shares, more buyers than sellers, price goes up, short sellers take their losses by buying back their shares, etc.

BUT... TITN is due to announce 3Q tomorrow (broke a COOL Club RULE... dooh!). Titan cautioned downward in their 2Q announcement and Mr. Market may have already priced it into the equation... but 5,000,000 shares say that the news isn't priced into the market and there may be a real fiscal cliff tomorrow. So, it is a bit of a crap shoot - looks like another trip back to the green felt for me!

Conclusion... newsletters are great places to find PROSPECTS not INVESTMENTS. Investments are found by taking the time to look into the company yourself before pressing your money into the Markets willing hands.

I'm going to ride this one out because I believe that Quarters are what people use for laundry machines. Too much emphasis is placed on the skills of the accounting department every three months rather than on the business. I like the prospects of this company. I am not fully educated about the conditions that may or may not affect the business - weather, farmers, politics - but I have time to learn.

If I get put, I'll write CC on the stock and watch the trends. I may even put on more shares because long term prospects are good. If the stock surprises and the short squeeze goes viral, I'll wave buy-buy and look for another opportunity to get into the stock at my price. If it goes Fargo on me and stays flat... I go shopping with the premium.

Cheers,

Malcolm

Great job of recapping your trade.  

One thing I would point out to you is how the CSP premium can also tell you there is heavy downside sentiment/concern.  Lots of buyers of CSPs who will stand to gain if the price goes down are bidding up the price of CSPs.  

A rough rule of thumb for a "normal" premium is to look for about .5% of the underlying per week. For TITN $22.50 PUT premiums with 2 1/2 weeks left that would be in the $.30 range.  Instead you got almost four to five times that amount.  Rich CSP premiums ahead of earnings just reinforces that the golden rule should be observed.  Unfortunately the rich premiums is like a siren of greek mythology, drawing us sellers in.  

Insurance companies could sell REALLY high insurance premiums 1 or 2 days ahead of a hurricane but they realize that is not a very prudent play.  High premiums which gives us high APRs ahead of earnings should sound just like a storm warning and we should batten down our Seller desks.

Does not mean it will not work out, but I would have to say almost every time I have broken the golden rule (yes I have done it also) especially on the PUT-side, I have regretted it.

What seems to work much better is to sell PUTs on the aftermath of a bad earnings report.

Thanks for sharing,

Paul





On Dec 5, 2012, at 4:02 PM, Malcolm Myles wrote:

Another trade to talk about.  Well, I'd like to talk about it with someone. (hint, hint)

I wanted to open a position in Titan Industries, Inc.  They sell manufacturing and farm equipment.  Good numbers, fair to good expectations - ever meet a farmer who was completely sure of the future?

I put in an order:

12/04/12 STO 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 1.45, 13 days, APR 126% NP $280.30

This order was slightly OTM and I fully expected to get the stock put to me as I want to start a position.  I just like the price to be 22.50-1.45=21.05 (cnc - commissions not considered) which is close to a recent low price in the stock after a down turn due to a disappointing 2Q earnings and potential disappointing 3Q report. The stock was recommended back at 25 and is still a  "buy up to" 24.70 or so.  So I thought I was real lucky to get in at 21.05.

Why does every newsletter, ever seminar, ever webcast tell you "do your own due diligence"... because, its your money, not theirs... do the math.

I caught an article posted hours after my trade that basically pointed out that TITN has a 29.50% Short Interest!  Hell of a lot of shares are betting against this stock!  Hell of a lot... like 5,000,000 a lot.  Ufh Duh... that's a lot even for West Fargo (TITN headquarters).

So, in spite of there being strong articles on BOTH sides of this stock, and a continued buy recommendation from my source, the fact that there are so many bets against the stock means what for me? 

It means I'll never see my shares put to me with this trade as there is a Short Squeeze on - price is climbing and short sellers take their losses by buying back their shares, more buyers than sellers, price goes up, short sellers take their losses by buying back their shares, etc.

BUT... TITN is due to announce 3Q tomorrow (broke a COOL Club RULE... dooh!).  Titan cautioned downward in their 2Q announcement and Mr. Market may have already priced it into the equation... but 5,000,000 shares say that the news isn't priced into the market and there may be a real fiscal cliff tomorrow. So, it is a bit of a crap shoot - looks like another trip back to the green felt for me!

Conclusion... newsletters are great places to find PROSPECTS not INVESTMENTS.  Investments are found by taking the time to look into the company yourself before pressing your money into the Markets willing hands. 

I'm going to ride this one out because I believe that Quarters are what people use for laundry machines.  Too much emphasis is placed on the skills of the accounting department every three months rather than on the business.  I like the prospects of this company.  I am not fully educated about the conditions that may or may not affect the business - weather, farmers, politics - but I have time to learn.

If I get put, I'll write CC on the stock and watch the trends.  I may even put on more shares because long term prospects are good. If the stock surprises and the short squeeze goes viral, I'll wave buy-buy and look for another opportunity to get into the stock at my price.  If it goes Fargo on me and stays flat... I go shopping with the premium.

Cheers,

Malcolm
 

Hi Malcolm,

It's true confession time. I looked at this particular stock myself earlier this week based on a friend's mention of the company. I love to entertain friend's ideas. Friends certainly enhance my universe of candidates by sharing their thoughts, and I greatly appreciate their ideas. So, after looking, I was interested and made Greedy Gal attempts to sell Dec. 20Ps at 65 cents on Monday and Tuesday this week. So, in spite of making an attempt to sell puts ahead of earnings, I failed. C'est la vie.

I wish you good and happy ending.... earnings will be out prior to the market open: you will know your fate soon enough.

Did you see this article while doing your research? It was the one that tipped me over the edge and drove my own madness to attempt to sell puts ahead of earnings. I chose the $20 strike because the stock's price has some recent technical support at that level.

Sharon

On Wed, Dec 5, 2012 at 3:32 PM, Paul Madison <madispa@gmail.com> wrote:
Great job of recapping your trade.

One thing I would point out to you is how the CSP premium can also tell you there is heavy downside sentiment/concern. Lots of buyers of CSPs who will stand to gain if the price goes down are bidding up the price of CSPs.

A rough rule of thumb for a "normal" premium is to look for about .5% of the underlying per week. For TITN $22.50 PUT premiums with 2 1/2 weeks left that would be in the $.30 range. Instead you got almost four to five times that amount. Rich CSP premiums ahead of earnings just reinforces that the golden rule should be observed. Unfortunately the rich premiums is like a siren of greek mythology, drawing us sellers in.

Insurance companies could sell REALLY high insurance premiums 1 or 2 days ahead of a hurricane but they realize that is not a very prudent play. High premiums which gives us high APRs ahead of earnings should sound just like a storm warning and we should batten down our Seller desks.

Does not mean it will not work out, but I would have to say almost every time I have broken the golden rule (yes I have done it also) especially on the PUT-side, I have regretted it.

What seems to work much better is to sell PUTs on the aftermath of a bad earnings report.

Thanks for sharing,

Paul





On Dec 5, 2012, at 4:02 PM, Malcolm Myles wrote:

Another trade to talk about. Well, I'd like to talk about it with someone. (hint, hint)

I wanted to open a position in Titan Industries, Inc. They sell manufacturing and farm equipment. Good numbers, fair to good expectations - ever meet a farmer who was completely sure of the future?

I put in an order:

12/04/12 STO 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 1.45, 13 days, APR 126% NP $280.30

This order was slightly OTM and I fully expected to get the stock put to me as I want to start a position. I just like the price to be 22.50-1.45=21.05 (cnc - commissions not considered) which is close to a recent low price in the stock after a down turn due to a disappointing 2Q earnings and potential disappointing 3Q report. The stock was recommended back at 25 and is still a "buy up to" 24.70 or so. So I thought I was real lucky to get in at 21.05.

Why does every newsletter, ever seminar, ever webcast tell you "do your own due diligence"... because, its your money, not theirs... do the math.

I caught an article posted hours after my trade that basically pointed out that TITN has a 29.50% Short Interest! Hell of a lot of shares are betting against this stock! Hell of a lot... like 5,000,000 a lot. Ufh Duh... that's a lot even for West Fargo (TITN headquarters).

So, in spite of there being strong articles on BOTH sides of this stock, and a continued buy recommendation from my source, the fact that there are so many bets against the stock means what for me?

It means I'll never see my shares put to me with this trade as there is a Short Squeeze on - price is climbing and short sellers take their losses by buying back their shares, more buyers than sellers, price goes up, short sellers take their losses by buying back their shares, etc.

BUT... TITN is due to announce 3Q tomorrow (broke a COOL Club RULE... dooh!). Titan cautioned downward in their 2Q announcement and Mr. Market may have already priced it into the equation... but 5,000,000 shares say that the news isn't priced into the market and there may be a real fiscal cliff tomorrow. So, it is a bit of a crap shoot - looks like another trip back to the green felt for me!

Conclusion... newsletters are great places to find PROSPECTS not INVESTMENTS. Investments are found by taking the time to look into the company yourself before pressing your money into the Markets willing hands.

I'm going to ride this one out because I believe that Quarters are what people use for laundry machines. Too much emphasis is placed on the skills of the accounting department every three months rather than on the business. I like the prospects of this company. I am not fully educated about the conditions that may or may not affect the business - weather, farmers, politics - but I have time to learn.

If I get put, I'll write CC on the stock and watch the trends. I may even put on more shares because long term prospects are good. If the stock surprises and the short squeeze goes viral, I'll wave buy-buy and look for another opportunity to get into the stock at my price. If it goes Fargo on me and stays flat... I go shopping with the premium.

Cheers,

Malcolm



Its all good Sharon & thanks Paul,

One of the reasons I've taken to Covered Options is that you are either in cash, which I like... a lot, or you are in a stock which you believe has a future of returning you money and some growth or value to you over time (invested)... which I also like... a lot.

It is great to be able to share my trades and get some feed back. I makes me better at what I hope to be very good at some day.

I have a different measuring stick for greed...

image link goes to PolitiFact.com article

So when you want to pull a few pennies out of the market, grab hold with both hands and yank as hard and as fast as you can!

Malcolm


On 12/5/2012 6:25 PM, Sharon McAllister wrote:
Hi Malcolm,

It's true confession time. I looked at this particular stock myself earlier this week based on a friend's mention of the company. I love to entertain friend's ideas. Friends certainly enhance my universe of candidates by sharing their thoughts, and I greatly appreciate their ideas. So, after looking, I was interested and made Greedy Gal attempts to sell Dec. 20Ps at 65 cents on Monday and Tuesday this week. So, in spite of making an attempt to sell puts ahead of earnings, I failed. C'est la vie.

I wish you good and happy ending.... earnings will be out prior to the market open: you will know your fate soon enough.

Did you see this article while doing your research? It was the one that tipped me over the edge and drove my own madness to attempt to sell puts ahead of earnings. I chose the $20 strike because the stock's price has some recent technical support at that level.

Sharon

On Wed, Dec 5, 2012 at 3:32 PM, Paul Madison <madispa@gmail.com> wrote:
Great job of recapping your trade.

One thing I would point out to you is how the CSP premium can also tell you there is heavy downside sentiment/concern. Lots of buyers of CSPs who will stand to gain if the price goes down are bidding up the price of CSPs.

A rough rule of thumb for a "normal" premium is to look for about .5% of the underlying per week. For TITN $22.50 PUT premiums with 2 1/2 weeks left that would be in the $.30 range. Instead you got almost four to five times that amount. Rich CSP premiums ahead of earnings just reinforces that the golden rule should be observed. Unfortunately the rich premiums is like a siren of greek mythology, drawing us sellers in.

Insurance companies could sell REALLY high insurance premiums 1 or 2 days ahead of a hurricane but they realize that is not a very prudent play. High premiums which gives us high APRs ahead of earnings should sound just like a storm warning and we should batten down our Seller desks.

Does not mean it will not work out, but I would have to say almost every time I have broken the golden rule (yes I have done it also) especially on the PUT-side, I have regretted it.

What seems to work much better is to sell PUTs on the aftermath of a bad earnings report.

Thanks for sharing,

Paul





On Dec 5, 2012, at 4:02 PM, Malcolm Myles wrote:

Another trade to talk about. Well, I'd like to talk about it with someone. (hint, hint)

I wanted to open a position in Titan Industries, Inc. They sell manufacturing and farm equipment. Good numbers, fair to good expectations - ever meet a farmer who was completely sure of the future?

I put in an order:

12/04/12 STO 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 1.45, 13 days, APR 126% NP $280.30

This order was slightly OTM and I fully expected to get the stock put to me as I want to start a position. I just like the price to be 22.50-1.45=21.05 (cnc - commissions not considered) which is close to a recent low price in the stock after a down turn due to a disappointing 2Q earnings and potential disappointing 3Q report. The stock was recommended back at 25 and is still a "buy up to" 24.70 or so. So I thought I was real lucky to get in at 21.05.

Why does every newsletter, ever seminar, ever webcast tell you "do your own due diligence"... because, its your money, not theirs... do the math.

I caught an article posted hours after my trade that basically pointed out that TITN has a 29.50% Short Interest! Hell of a lot of shares are betting against this stock! Hell of a lot... like 5,000,000 a lot. Ufh Duh... that's a lot even for West Fargo (TITN headquarters).

So, in spite of there being strong articles on BOTH sides of this stock, and a continued buy recommendation from my source, the fact that there are so many bets against the stock means what for me?

It means I'll never see my shares put to me with this trade as there is a Short Squeeze on - price is climbing and short sellers take their losses by buying back their shares, more buyers than sellers, price goes up, short sellers take their losses by buying back their shares, etc.

BUT... TITN is due to announce 3Q tomorrow (broke a COOL Club RULE... dooh!). Titan cautioned downward in their 2Q announcement and Mr. Market may have already priced it into the equation... but 5,000,000 shares say that the news isn't priced into the market and there may be a real fiscal cliff tomorrow. So, it is a bit of a crap shoot - looks like another trip back to the green felt for me!

Conclusion... newsletters are great places to find PROSPECTS not INVESTMENTS. Investments are found by taking the time to look into the company yourself before pressing your money into the Markets willing hands.

I'm going to ride this one out because I believe that Quarters are what people use for laundry machines. Too much emphasis is placed on the skills of the accounting department every three months rather than on the business. I like the prospects of this company. I am not fully educated about the conditions that may or may not affect the business - weather, farmers, politics - but I have time to learn.

If I get put, I'll write CC on the stock and watch the trends. I may even put on more shares because long term prospects are good. If the stock surprises and the short squeeze goes viral, I'll wave buy-buy and look for another opportunity to get into the stock at my price. If it goes Fargo on me and stays flat... I go shopping with the premium.

Cheers,

Malcolm




Good morning Malcolm. I'm sure you noticed TITN's price action. Did you decide to close your trade, take the money and run while you enjoy the jingle-jingle sound in your pocket?

Enjoy!
Sharon

Well, there is a high pressure dome over the Great Basin and with all the water we've had the last week, there is an incredible fog bank that I've been watching. It is over 500' thick and below my house. Only happens a few times a decade. Pretty dang cool sunrise (PST here) twice!

So... the game of numbers.

12/04/12 STO 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 1.45, 13 days, APR 126% NP $280.30

and if I plug the numbers into the Cool Tools CSP spreadsheet...

12/06/12 BTC 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 0.40, 2 days, APR 722% NP 190.60

Ufh DAH!

Market opened up with TITN jumping 6% on 3Q news, the short squeeze is on! The accountants did their job and beat by $0.01 (because any more would be a waste), reaffirmed FY13 EPS guidance and raised FY13 revenue. Revs rose 37.6% y/y.

Choices, choices... I've got a bird in my hand, I have a flock of birds out there, some in bushes, some in the feeder, some trained to my hand (sorry, a bush full of house wrens outside my window, I call it wren tv).

I could ride this out for 16 more days and let it expire worthless or I can buy it back for $90 and look for more opportunities.

But... COOL Club Rule #2 - you write calls on stocks you want to sell; you write put options on stocks you want to own! I want to own this company and I want to own it near $21/sh.

Bummer... but, the numbers are not to be abuse or mistrusted. I'll put in my order to close out the position at .15 (ask price dropped to .35 while I am composing... the a flock of quail came into view). Which if it hits, will make the bird in my hand that much fatter. Then monitor TITN for a pull back on volatility and try again.

Another seeing eye single. (50 days to Spring Training)

Malcolm


On 12/6/2012 7:14 AM, Sharon McAllister wrote:
Good morning Malcolm. I'm sure you noticed TITN's price action. Did you decide to close your trade, take the money and run while you enjoy the jingle-jingle sound in your pocket?

Enjoy!
Sharon


Wasn't filled. My position is still open and I'm getting comfortable with that. I ride this one out.

I am researching the company more and there are some compelling numbers to consider as well as some significant unknown barriers - global warming is affecting farming which affects the sales of farming equipment. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the temperate zones year to year. Overall trend will be warmer and dryer which doesn't bode well for the Dust Bowl States, but Nebraska, Dakotas and S. Canada may become the new bread basket states, which would mean more sales. Also, the company is expanding into expansion into Serbia, which sounds like a health issue.

Ah, to speculate or not to speculate, what can be more human.

Malcolm


On 12/6/2012 8:09 AM, Malcolm Myles wrote:
Well, there is a high pressure dome over the Great Basin and with all the water we've had the last week, there is an incredible fog bank that I've been watching. It is over 500' thick and below my house. Only happens a few times a decade. Pretty dang cool sunrise (PST here) twice!

So... the game of numbers.

12/04/12 STO 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 1.45, 13 days, APR 126% NP $280.30

and if I plug the numbers into the Cool Tools CSP spreadsheet...

12/06/12 BTC 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 0.40, 2 days, APR 722% NP 190.60

Ufh DAH!

Market opened up with TITN jumping 6% on 3Q news, the short squeeze is on! The accountants did their job and beat by $0.01 (because any more would be a waste), reaffirmed FY13 EPS guidance and raised FY13 revenue. Revs rose 37.6% y/y.

Choices, choices... I've got a bird in my hand, I have a flock of birds out there, some in bushes, some in the feeder, some trained to my hand (sorry, a bush full of house wrens outside my window, I call it wren tv).

I could ride this out for 16 more days and let it expire worthless or I can buy it back for $90 and look for more opportunities.

But... COOL Club Rule #2 - you write calls on stocks you want to sell; you write put options on stocks you want to own! I want to own this company and I want to own it near $21/sh.

Bummer... but, the numbers are not to be abuse or mistrusted. I'll put in my order to close out the position at .15 (ask price dropped to .35 while I am composing... the a flock of quail came into view). Which if it hits, will make the bird in my hand that much fatter. Then monitor TITN for a pull back on volatility and try again.

Another seeing eye single. (50 days to Spring Training)

Malcolm


On 12/6/2012 7:14 AM, Sharon McAllister wrote:
Good morning Malcolm. I'm sure you noticed TITN's price action. Did you decide to close your trade, take the money and run while you enjoy the jingle-jingle sound in your pocket?

Enjoy!
Sharon



Hi All,

Well, It appeared that TITN was going to creep up and take a walk away from my strike price of 22.50... So last Friday I decided to roll that puppy over and raspberry that tummy!

Roll over...
12/4/12 STO 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 1.45, APR 126% Net $279.52
12/14/12 BTC 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 0.19, APR 173% Net $231.05 (cost me $48.47 to close)

Raspberry... Pppptttthhhhh!

I'm still amazed at is that I basically put $4,500 at "risk" of purchasing a stock I want at my price and was paid $231 for my "risk" in 10 days! Trade was real, was mine, was in a ROTH... was cool.

I'll continue to watch the stock and probably just open a position if it drops to my price again. Or maybe "risk" my $4,731 pot-o-money again!

Malcolm

On 12/6/2012 1:33 PM, Malcolm Myles wrote:
Wasn't filled. My position is still open and I'm getting comfortable with that. I ride this one out.

I am researching the company more and there are some compelling numbers to consider as well as some significant unknown barriers - global warming is affecting farming which affects the sales of farming equipment. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the temperate zones year to year. Overall trend will be warmer and dryer which doesn't bode well for the Dust Bowl States, but Nebraska, Dakotas and S. Canada may become the new bread basket states, which would mean more sales. Also, the company is expanding into expansion into Serbia, which sounds like a health issue.

Ah, to speculate or not to speculate, what can be more human.

Malcolm